Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
