Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
